Spain vs. Spain

With so many Spanish footballers now plying their trade in other countries as La Liga clubs are forced to sell off their crown jewels, it seems fair to ask which is the better side - an all La Liga selección  or one composed of Spanish expatriate players?

With no further ado, here are my team sheets. I choose to play a 4-4-3 in both cases.

Spanish players currently outside La Liga

---------Juan Mata-------------------Fernando Torres------------------David Silva-----

---------Santi Cazorla-------------Javi Garcia--------------Mikel Arteta-----------------

Nacho Monreal------Javi Martinez--------Carlos Cuellar-------Cesar Azpilicueta--------

-------------------------------------Pepe Reina------------------------------------------

Substitutes:  David De Gea, Alvaro Dominguez, Michu, Chico Flores


Spanish players currently in La Liga


---------Iniesta--------------------David Villa------------------------Fabregas-----------

--------------Isco-------------------Xavi-------------------Xabi Alonso-----------------

Jordi Alba----------Carles Puyol-----------Gerard Pique---------Sergio Ramos----------

-------------------------------------Iker Casillas------------------------------------------

Substitutes: Victor Valdes, Jesus Navas, Benat, Pedro, Alvaro Arbeloa


The "outside" squad obviously has less consistent quality, since it is forced to use the dinosaur-like Carlos Cuellar and what's left of Fernando Torres. Its depth is not fantastic either, as I could bring myself to name four substitutes (though they at least cover four different positions). Pablo Hernandez and Esteban Granero are next up should they recover form and sharpness. There is no lack of Spanish expatriate footballers, even if the rest seem to be misfits and squad players (Jordi Gomez, Angel Rangel, David Fuster, Marc Crosas, Bojan Krcic, to name a few).

But the "outside" squad is not bad! Many of its members can and do start for the (combined) national team. Some might even say the squad could be stronger with Mata and Silva flip-flopped (both like to cut in from the right on their left foot, but Mata is more lethal of late) and the in-form Michu in place of Torres. These are valid arguments.

For the "inside" squad, there is no real drop in quality compared to the regular combined side. Certainly Isco is not yet a regular national team starter but the squad could always be rebalanced to accomodate the more experienced Jesus Navas or Pedro instead.

This exercise illustrates the depth of Spanish football at the moment. Both teams would be competitive on the world stage and I have a feeling the "inside" squad could still win a major tournament even without the "outside" talent. I don't think this exercise would generate two teams of such caliber for any other country. Brazil and Argentina  probably come closest, but their "inside" teams are noticeably weaker than the "outside" ones.

Is Spanish Football a Liga de Mierda?

During the last summer break, Sevilla president Jose Maria del Nido made waves when he called Spain a “liga de mierda.” He was referring to the fact that Barcelona or Madrid inevitably win the title and that an increasing distance separates those two from the third-place team. 

Spain has always been top-heavy, with Real Madrid and Barcelona winning a combined 63% of the league titles, reflecting the natural edge of big-market teams in a league without comprehensive revenue sharing agreements or salary caps. The question is whether La Liga is more top-heavy now than ever.

I crunched some numbers and the results were even more conclusive than I thought they would be. From 2000-2009, no title-winning team had more than 87 points. In 2010 through 2012, however, both Barcelona and Real Madrid each amassed more than 90. The gap between second and third place has grown to 25 in the last three years, on average, from 5 in the ten years prior. No team other than Barcelona and Madrid has finished in first or second in the last three years, a feat that used to be relatively frequent (it happened 4 times from 2000-2009). 

So it’s clear that Real Madrid and Barcelona have mutated into superheroes, but at the expense of the top teams or the worst ones? Is it the case that the big two are simply beating up more on the worst teams or are they getting less of a fight from the top of the table?

Here was the big surprise. The average points total of every league position from 4^th-17^th has decreased from 2000-2009 to 2010-2012. Each place has gotten a little worse. The sixth place finisher used to expect about 60 points; now they get 57. Twelfth place used to get 47 and now gets 45.

The clubs at the top have suffered more than the clubs at the bottom. As you go down the table, the general trend is for the drop in points total to narrow. In fact, the relegation places are performing slightly better than before! This is probably a reflection of their fielding the same quality sides they’ve always fielded against weakening opposition.

The head-to-head results yield a similar insight. The eventual champion has always had a great head-to-head result against the teams who finish in the relegation places (though those wins may now be by a wider margin) but was more evenly matched against the European places. In 2004-2005, when Barcelona and Madrid finished first and second, they were a combined 6-6-4 (win-draw-lose) against the teams that finished in third, fourth, fifth, and sixth places. Those games accounted for about a third of the points each team dropped all season. In 2011-2012, by comparison, Madrid and Barcelona were a combined 12-3-1 against the European teams. A greater share of the points they dropped were 'fluke' slips-ups against lower-table teams!

To those who believe Atletico Madrid or Malaga are capable of a long term title challenge, I say, “Please.” Malaga do have some of the needed quality including startling youth products like Isco, Ignacio Camacho, and Francisco Portillo but recent sales of Diego Buonanotte and Nacho Monreal show that the club is being run pragmatically. They are built to reach the Champions League and generate a consistent financial return, a la Arsenal. (ESPN Soccernet writers have made this argument as well.) And Atlético is a good club on a great run. They play with cohesiveness and fearlessness, but who knows if this will continue, especially when Falcao is inevitably sold on. Valencia, in my opinion, are the one team who would have been capable of a title challenge had they not got carried away with building a new stadium and been forced to sell so many great players.

Is it good to have a Liga de Mierda? I guess this is a question La Liga adminstrators will ask themselves as they consider falling TV audiences and gate receipts, but also consistent Champions League success for Madrid and Barcelona as well as a bigger following for the big two abroad.

The View From Section 118

I apologize to my faithful readers for not updating this blog. I was based in Asia for some time and it was difficult to follow La Liga. Now I am back and on a mission to consume as much FC Barcelona as possible. I got my hands on a season pass to Camp Nou and, in my depraved and deprived state, even go to Barcelona B games at the mini estadi.

My seats are in Section 118, Row 3, right behind the goal that Barcelona attack in the first half. In no particular order, here are my observations:

• Leo Messi spends most of the game walking around and looking bored. Unlike early in his career, when he chased every play and developed chronic muscle problems, these days he concentrates his energy on 8-10 sprints per game. On these runs he tends to be devastating and it's a much better use of his power. Example of a devastating Messi run.
• As good as Messi is, Andres Iniesta might be even better. When Barça face top quality opposition and are under pressure to maintain possession, Iniesta is the most threatening attacker. He's always composed and perfectly balanced. Defenders can't read what he's going to do. "Imagine if the team could field 10 Iniestas as outfield players," I said to my friend. He gasped. "They would be invincible."
• Dani Alves is fading fast. Gone are the days where Alves and Messi on the right side were Barcelona's attacking fulcrum. Alves is increasingly unable to put up a good cross and his shooting is terrible. Before each game he practices shooting from distance and usually gets nowhere near the goal.   And this is with no one between him and the net. Some say that Alves is partying more after splitting from his wife, a la Ronaldinho circa 2007. It wouldn't surprise me if that were true.
• Barcelona's unsung hero is Sergio Busquets. No one recovers more balls in midfield and no one has better anticipation of how a play will develop. At the same time, he has become a better passer and goalscorer. Each year he improves. Example of Busquets improvement as a passer.
• Barcelona are going to need two new keepers. With Valdes insisting he wants to leave at the end of next year and Pinto declining more and more with each game, there will soon be no one left. Barca can purchase two decent keepers and let them battle it out for the starting spot. Do I buy Valdes's reasoning that he simply wants to experience another country while he's in his prime? I'm not sure. I feel like there must be something else.

Thanks for reading and I'll try to post breakdowns of interesting games should they occur.

Why FCB Should Sign Javi Martinez Before the Euros

Everyone accepts that one of Barcelona’s main needs this summer is a central defender. With Carles Puyol battered and ageing (though he should make a full recovery) and Gerard Pique’s attitude questioned at the end of the season, the team was forced into a make-shift defense for key matches and the results were not pretty.

A prime candidate is Javi Martinez – effusively praised in a recent piece from Graham Hunter. Martinez has demonstrated his quality with big-time performances against Spain’s top teams and, of course, Manchester United. A relentless tackler and ball-chaser who can also pass his way out of the back, he is also a perfect fit for Barcelona’s style. The best part is he can play as a midfielder or defender. This would give Barcelona two players – in Martinez and Javier Mascherano – that are flexible enough to shift between and during games. Mascherano is probably better as a midfielder, Martinez as a defender.

The sums being discussed for the 23-year old are already eye-popping. It would be hard to prise him away from Bilbao for anything less than €25mn. But Barcelona would be wise to act soon. Since Puyol is unavailable for the Euro, Martinez will start for Spain. A good run there and his value will almost certainly increase – perhaps to €40mn, which seems like a silly price to pay for a central defender.

The kicker is that if things do not go well for Martinez at the Euro Championships, his value will not drop. His body of work is impossible to refute. Therefore, buyers would do well to close the deal before the tournament. It's a simple game theory argument.

Martinez may ultimately not be available for any price. Don’t rule out a pact between him, Iker Muniain, and Fernando Llorente to stay at Bilbao for another couple years and try to build a winner. For all the players who have grabbed at the first big check someone waved in their face (I know you are reading, Sergio Canales), there are so many who have benefited from waiting. Fernando Torres, Kun Aguero, David Villa, and David Silva all waited a couple years before making their move to an upper-upper-echelon team.

Titles and Relegations!

North Americans always say that the maximum day of sports hedonism is the first round of the re NCAA Basketball Tournament. I stand corrected after today’s finales of the Premier League and La Liga.

Manchester City, on the verge of completing a scandalous meltdown in an impotent performance against 10-man QPR, finally produced two stoppage time goals to wrest the title from Manchester United.  Meanwhile, Arsenal saved more than just its season as it came from behind to guarantee a Champions League place, and with it the ability to retain talisman Robin Van Persie.

In Spain, the drama was at the bottom of the table as Rayo, Granada, Villarreal, and Zaragoza faced possible relegation. The drop is a much different animal in Spain than in England. With Spain unable to support a robust pyramid of professional football like England’s, and parachute payments less generous, relegated teams may never be heard from again. Such is the sentiment towards Villarreal, who will be forced to shed assets again this summer having already sold Santi Cazorla and Joan Capdevila last year. Villarreal perhaps deserved relegation after an insipid season but nonetheless have provided Spain with so many fantastic David vs. Goliath moments during their top-flight run.

Having watched teams and their fans experience the range of emotions today, I would suggest that a relegation escape is even sweeter than a title celebration. Titles are sweet; we all want them. When your team misses out on a title, you’re angry. You wonder if the Meester is the right guy for the job. You lambast players for not being fully committed to the cause. But when a team faces relegation, it sees its life flash before its eyes. People feel desperate. They cry. In the end, losing a title is disappointing but it’s not the end of the world. Relegation is. And escaping it, particularly in the manner that Rayo Vallecano did today after being so close to the flame, must be totally exhilarating.  

To summarize some of the other great stories in both leagues:

-          Minnows Levante produced a brilliant end to a remarkable season that saw them finish in the Europa League places. Unlike so many small teams whose sudden rise was due to a massive cash infusion (Villarreal, TSG Hoffenheim, Málaga), Levante simply played beyond themselves for an entire season (and the latter stages of last season). Even as pundits affectionately documented their early-season rise, most expected a swift descent to mediocrity (or worse), making their strong finish all the more miraculous.

-          Zaragoza completed an inspired turnaround with yet another late victory to save thir season

-          Falcao came up trumps yet again for Atlético Madrid, capping a campaign where the €40mn player has been a smashing success

-          Tottenham paid the price for its late-season complacency and will face more difficulty than ever to hold on to treasures like Luka Modric and Gareth Bale if Chelsea qualify for next season’s Champions League by winning the final this week.

-          Madrid celebrated its title with typical pageantry and pomposity in a ceremony that was unnecessarily similar to an Olympic Games opening ceremony.

-          With its demotion, Villarreal is now in the same league as Villarreal B. forcing the youth team to demote as well. Many in the youth squad are, presumably, adequate to the Segunda Level but not ready for the Primera, though the silver lining is that at least Villarreal should be able to avoid sliding down further, like Gimnastic de Tarragona.

Crisis for the Pep Team?

Still in contention one week ago for the two main jewels in Barcelona’s reach – La Liga and the Champions League – today the prevailing sentiment is that Barcelona’s hegemony over European football has come to an end. Therefore, I would like to hypothesize about why Barcelona has not hit the same highs this season as in the previous 3.

To start, defensive frailties. Most culés believe that Barcelona just need to take their chances in front of goal, but if they had not given up even one of the soft goals against Chelsea, they would have advanced. The reason for the defensive frailties is simply that Puyol, Pique, and Mascherano do not constitute a back line. There is not a left back among them and Mascherano is a midfielder. Pique’s running disagreement with Guardiola, and the probable concussion he suffered last night, complicated things further.

The second structural problem is on the left wing, which seemed to be a focal point for attack but which often lost the ball. In this position, Barcelona’s youth academy has been churning out a flavor of the mouth that sparkles and then fizzles. In 2008, it was Bojan Krkic. He kept the team afloat during the dark final days of the Rijkaard regime but in 2011 was sold like scrap to Milan, having become the fancy sports car that you never take out because you bought another, even fancier one. Next came Pedro. The multi-footed winger was a revelation in 2009 with his big-game goals, seemingly always from different places on the pitch. Fast forward to 2012 and locals groan when Pedro comes on. And this year we had Christian Tello who scored twice in his debut and has earned solid league minutes but has been completely ineffective in the recent big matches.

I have several suggestions for the critical left wing position: 

1)      Thiago Alcantara. He’s probably the best at running at defenders from this position and Barcelona doesn’t need him in the midfield with Cesc, Iniesta, and Xavi fit. For me, Thiago should have been deployed here lsat night and on Saturday.

2)      Loans. La Masia is a factory, and the great thing about a factory is that it churns out players of a similar standard. The bad thing, in a footballing sense, is too little variation – which has enabled defenses to neutralize the young newcomers relatively quickly. It is perhaps no coincidence that two successful cantera alumni, Cesc and Pique, cut their teeth in foreign leagues before coming back to Barcelona.

3)      Outside buys. Sometimes Barcelona has to look outside the cantera for a truly de-stabilizing player, given that its youth setup produces so little variation. Alexis, Villa, and Alves are examples. Unfortunately, there aren’t many good players available who fit this position. The best wingers in Europe who are likely to be available, Jesus Navas and Adam Johnson, play on the right (though Navas occasionally plays on the left). Iker Muniain is a player to watch and does play on the left, but at 19 he’s too unproven.

One final thought: should culés be so concerned about this year’s disappointment given that the critical pieces are still in place? After all, Messi is still Messi, Alexis and Cesc have shined, Xavi and Iniesta are still the best midfielders in the world, and Puyol shows no sign of slowing down. This year’s failure doesn’t mean Barcelona can’t maintain its pace since 2006 of winning the Champions League ever 2-3 years, which is still an achievement unprecedented in the modern game.

I think the real desperation comes from the knowledge that all dynasties inevitably fall. Barcelona experienced some lean years after the 1990’s Dream Team; Madrid went hungry after the initial success of Galácticos I; and Liverpool has not tasted Premier League title success for 20 years. It is premature to call the Pep Team over; but there are signs of cracks in the foundation.

Optimistic about American soccer

To Americans looking for proof that the national team is coming along, last month's friendly win over Italy was a cause for celebration. ESPN suggested the win wouldd be a confidence booster, even though Italy had the bulk of the chances and anywhere between 3 and 5 Yankee players looked totally lost on the pitch. Given the fragility of the win, the fact that it was only a friendly, and the memory of Italian domination in this same fixture in the last Confederations Cup, can we conclude that the US team has improved?

An important factor is the new coach, Jurgen Klinsmann, who certainly brings pedigree and tactical nous to the team. But I would like to focus on the American players' performance with their club teams as a proxy for national team improvement.

Looking around at the different players and leagues, there are encouraging signs. First, the settling of two players who are absolutely critical to the US. Jozy Altidore has finally found his stride at AZ Alkmar - a club that, while perhaps not on the same level as the top-shelf Villarreal side of 2004-2011, is nothing to sniff at either. Ditto Oguchi Onyewu at Sporting CP, after a disastrous stint with AC Milan. Altidore's and Onyewu's talent is undeniable, it's just a question of finding the right situation to extract it. Which is to say that comparisons to Freddy Adu, whose talent was grossly overestimated from the start, are premature for both.

Second, a core of players have really begun to shine in top European leagues. Clint Dempsey has been nothing short of sensational for Fulham, and is quietly reported to be heading to Arsenal in the summer. Landon Donovan again excelled during his annual loan to Everton. Stuart Holden proved his importance at Bolton, albeit through a prolonged absence. And Michael Bradley has had an outstanding season for Chievo that could see top teams come calling. (With Jermaine Jones now in the fold, the central/defensive midfielder position could be said to be the only outfield position with a quality backup.)

It is concerning that only the players named above are truly international-caliber - in addition to, of course, the always-dependable Steve Cherundalo, Carlos Bocanegra, and Tim Howard. The US continues to lack consistent quality throughout the ranks, and will still suffer at the end of games when substitutes can only provide fresh legs, and not fresh impetus. In addition, DaMarcus Beasley's stock has fallen quite drastically and Charlie Davies has yet to recover from his 2010 car accident. Though the maturity of youngsters like Jose Torres and Fabian Johnson might mitigate their loss in form.

All in all, I see the US well-positioned to get something out of its ageing but still-capable core in the next World Cup, depending of course on the draw, but it goes without saying that the core could use some help.