Champions League Semifinal 1st Leg Recap

Congratulations to the home sides who claimed well-deserved victories in the Champions League semifinals, though the door remains plainly open for all 4 teams to stake their claim for the finals in the return leg.

It was interesting to see how Barcelona and Real Madrid reacted to facing this caliber of opposition, since the top-heaviness of La Liga basically means that they are tested only a handful of times per year.

Bayern vs. Real Madrid was a delightful contest, on balance the most even match between two top teams in the competition. With players of the quality of Robben, Ribery, Lahm, and Gomez – and the pedigree of having eliminated a top Manchester United team in 2010 – it was inevitable that Bayern would fluster Madrid. I found it interesting that their attacks often began with Lahm at right back, then crossed the pitch to Ribery on the left flank. Madrid had no answer and was consistently beaten on the left. Gomez also warrants special mention. Perhaps because the Spanish game has shifted away from big target men who don’t like to carry the ball for 40 meters, Madrid was uncertain how to defend Gomez.

In London, I think we saw a similar storyline as in 2009. Barcelona dominated possession (74%) and created more chances (24 to 6) but credit to Chelsea for scoring first. Like in 2009, when Chelsea brought an away goal back to Stamford Bridge and just sat on it until the “Iniestazo,” 2012 Chelsea largely parked the bus after scoring, keen to preserve their 1-0 lead.

Will Barcelona be able to break down the door in the return leg? I think that, on the evidence of the two very clear chances created late in the second half (Puyol’s header and Pedro’s shot off the post), they will find a way through even if Chelsea parks the bus. And Chelsea may not necessarily do so from the outset, as they’ll know that a quick away goal will almost guarantee their passage. So I would expect an open game in the first hour, where if Barcelona scores first they will go on to score a few more, but if Chelsea scores first Barcelona won’t have a prayer. And if no one scores by the hour mark, we’ll see a repeat of last week’s final half hour.

While Chelsea deserves credit for an organized performance and a well-taken goal, in view of Barcelona’s glaring misses (this easily could have been 3-1 to the good into 1-0 against), the British press’s exalting descriptions of a “fearless Chelsea side” seem exaggerated. In the article, Kevin Palmer says that “Di Matteo's team of battle-hardened warriors stood up to the Barcelona machine and refused to buckle under their generally deadly spell.” Palmer’s hyperbole ignores the bevy of near-misses that on other days are goals. The performance was good, but I would not call a 1-0 home win immaculate. Perhaps that is the standard Barcelona have set under Guardiola.

I still think the odds are in favor of a Clásico final, but wouldn’t be totally surprised to see any combination of the 4 teams.