Giving up on La Liga

As I watched Swansea City demolish Valencia in the Europa League last week, I realized I had no interest in La Liga anymore. This was a Valencia that was not quite good enough last season, finishing 5^th, yet they turned around for the fourth consecutive summer and sold their best player. Not a winning formula.

The remnants of the team formerly known as Valencia lie strewn about Europe. David Villa, David Silva, Juan Mata, Pablo Hernandez, Roberto Soldado, and Joaquin now play for Atletico Madrid, Manchester City, Chelsea, Swansea City, Tottenham, and Fiorentina. The club has a little bit of quality left but no stars.

Valencia’s plight owing to their ill-timed investment in a new stadium, however, is well-documented. The sad fact is they are not alone. Malaga sold 5 first team players, Sevilla 6, and Real Betis 4. Celtic Vigo, Real Sociedad, Atletico Madrid, and Rayo Vallecano also sold their best players.

True, Atletico have reinforced wisely following Falcao’s departure and look capable of challenging for the title. This was a unanimous early observation by La Liga’s pundits, as if they agree it is the league’s only storyline.

When Swansea faced Valencia, they had more Spaniards in the side than did the La Liga outfit. In total Swansea has 8 Spaniards on their roster, including Michu, who scored 22 goals for them in all competitions last season.

The summer saw 23 former La Liga footballers migrate to England, where 10 full Spain internationals and 7 youth internationals now ply their trade. Only 6 Premier League teams don’t have a Spanish player. This bodes well for the Spanish national team, which also sources from Italy and Germany, but not for La Liga.  

Selling established stars for bank-breaking fees, as in the case of Fernando Torres, David Silva, and Sergio Aguero, is one thing. Now clubs are offloading young players they should be developing instead of selling. Jose Campaña, Antonio Luna, Jordi Amat, Alvaro Vazquez, and Alejandro Pozuelo all came to the Premier League this summer at less than 22 years of age and could be stars. Pozuelo in particular, sold for just €500,000 from Real Betis to Swansea, looks like a downright gem.

What would save teams like Betis, Sevilla, and Valencia is a true revenue sharing agreement in La Liga, like in England and Germany. Instead La Liga imposed salary caps this year – if you can even call them that.  Real Madrid and Barcelona can spend up to €190 million, Atletico Madrid can spend up to €66 million, an ‘upper middle class’ group enjoys a cap of €40 million, and on down to €14 million for the lowest tier. It’s an embarrassing perpetuation of the duopoly.

The salary caps may stave off bankruptcy but they will not ensure parity. You can’t fault teams for giving up before the season starts. And you can’t fault fans for giving up on the league. 

Barça's 5 Keys to Victory Against AC Milan

 “This Barça needs a comeback,” Xavi said, and now they have one. Imperious for an hour albeit nervy in the late stages, Barça ultimately showed concentration and hunger in advancing to the Champions League quarterfinals with a 4-0 victory that cancelled a 2-0 away loss.

If ever there was a stage for a comeback, this was it. Milan are not having a good domestic season. They lie in 3rd place, 12 points off the pace, compared to last year when they finished runners-up behind undefeated Juventus by just 4 points. And you could hardly say they had built up a head of steam in the Champions League since this was the first knockout round.

In short, this always looked like it would be easier than the Chelsea and Inter Milan deficits Barça had previously failed to overturn. True, Milan are catenaccio experts but the present version is much more rickety than the Maldini-led editions of the past.

On top of that, Milan was shorn of attackers (Balotelli cup-tied, Robinho out of form, Pazzini injured) to leave 18-year-old M’Baye Niang to lead the line. For large stretches of the game they looked hapless. They couldn’t string together more than a few consecutive passes, their long balls were imprecise, and their defenders looked somewhere between star-struck and shell-shocked.

All this should serve to explain the victory but not to downplay it. Barça still had to work hard. Here are the key reasons they were victorious.

Fast start: Barça played with urgency and verve from the get-go, and within 5 minutes had already pulled back a goal while Milan had not yet completed 10 passes. Barcelona were always going to take the initiative and have loads of posession, but their early intensity overwhelmed Milan.

Tactics: The defensive back three, the abandoning of the False 9 Cesc-periment, and the confidence shown in David Villa all paid off handsomely.

Hustle: Barça seemed to win most of the in-between balls they were nipping at Milan’s heels in midfield whenever they lost the ball. Even though there was some heart-in-mouth defending in the final stretch, committed lunges and blocks prevented Milan from getting shots on goal (they had only 2 all match). Special mention to Jordi Alba, who was still zipping up and down the field even when he looked exhausted.

Messi: The man played the game of his life, conjuring two goals with defenders right in front of him and playing out of tight spaces again and again to keep possession. He also put in shifts in the defensive third. Take note, Cristiano Ronaldo: this is why Messi has 4 Balon d’Ors and you have one.  

Iniesta: Barcelona’s odessey for a second x-factor besides Messi has brought Henry, Ibrahimovic, and Alexis over the years yet they always seem overshadowed by Andres Iniesta. In his preferred central midfield role, he showed up all over the pitch and consistently left defenders dumbfounded.

There are those who will say that Barcelona were fortunate, as Niang could have turned the tie on its head by converting his first-half chance that rebounded off the post. This is absolutely true – just as Barcelona could have had its second earlier if not for a fingertip save on Xavi’s long-range missile. As Miquel Delaney pointed out, the winners are usually lucky. In this case they were also deserving.

Note: I was at the Camp Nou for this match and will be writing a second post about the experience. 

Spain vs. Spain

With so many Spanish footballers now plying their trade in other countries as La Liga clubs are forced to sell off their crown jewels, it seems fair to ask which is the better side - an all La Liga selección  or one composed of Spanish expatriate players?

With no further ado, here are my team sheets. I choose to play a 4-4-3 in both cases.

Spanish players currently outside La Liga

---------Juan Mata-------------------Fernando Torres------------------David Silva-----

---------Santi Cazorla-------------Javi Garcia--------------Mikel Arteta-----------------

Nacho Monreal------Javi Martinez--------Carlos Cuellar-------Cesar Azpilicueta--------

-------------------------------------Pepe Reina------------------------------------------

Substitutes:  David De Gea, Alvaro Dominguez, Michu, Chico Flores


Spanish players currently in La Liga


---------Iniesta--------------------David Villa------------------------Fabregas-----------

--------------Isco-------------------Xavi-------------------Xabi Alonso-----------------

Jordi Alba----------Carles Puyol-----------Gerard Pique---------Sergio Ramos----------

-------------------------------------Iker Casillas------------------------------------------

Substitutes: Victor Valdes, Jesus Navas, Benat, Pedro, Alvaro Arbeloa


The "outside" squad obviously has less consistent quality, since it is forced to use the dinosaur-like Carlos Cuellar and what's left of Fernando Torres. Its depth is not fantastic either, as I could bring myself to name four substitutes (though they at least cover four different positions). Pablo Hernandez and Esteban Granero are next up should they recover form and sharpness. There is no lack of Spanish expatriate footballers, even if the rest seem to be misfits and squad players (Jordi Gomez, Angel Rangel, David Fuster, Marc Crosas, Bojan Krcic, to name a few).

But the "outside" squad is not bad! Many of its members can and do start for the (combined) national team. Some might even say the squad could be stronger with Mata and Silva flip-flopped (both like to cut in from the right on their left foot, but Mata is more lethal of late) and the in-form Michu in place of Torres. These are valid arguments.

For the "inside" squad, there is no real drop in quality compared to the regular combined side. Certainly Isco is not yet a regular national team starter but the squad could always be rebalanced to accomodate the more experienced Jesus Navas or Pedro instead.

This exercise illustrates the depth of Spanish football at the moment. Both teams would be competitive on the world stage and I have a feeling the "inside" squad could still win a major tournament even without the "outside" talent. I don't think this exercise would generate two teams of such caliber for any other country. Brazil and Argentina  probably come closest, but their "inside" teams are noticeably weaker than the "outside" ones.

Is Spanish Football a Liga de Mierda?

During the last summer break, Sevilla president Jose Maria del Nido made waves when he called Spain a “liga de mierda.” He was referring to the fact that Barcelona or Madrid inevitably win the title and that an increasing distance separates those two from the third-place team. 

Spain has always been top-heavy, with Real Madrid and Barcelona winning a combined 63% of the league titles, reflecting the natural edge of big-market teams in a league without comprehensive revenue sharing agreements or salary caps. The question is whether La Liga is more top-heavy now than ever.

I crunched some numbers and the results were even more conclusive than I thought they would be. From 2000-2009, no title-winning team had more than 87 points. In 2010 through 2012, however, both Barcelona and Real Madrid each amassed more than 90. The gap between second and third place has grown to 25 in the last three years, on average, from 5 in the ten years prior. No team other than Barcelona and Madrid has finished in first or second in the last three years, a feat that used to be relatively frequent (it happened 4 times from 2000-2009). 

So it’s clear that Real Madrid and Barcelona have mutated into superheroes, but at the expense of the top teams or the worst ones? Is it the case that the big two are simply beating up more on the worst teams or are they getting less of a fight from the top of the table?

Here was the big surprise. The average points total of every league position from 4^th-17^th has decreased from 2000-2009 to 2010-2012. Each place has gotten a little worse. The sixth place finisher used to expect about 60 points; now they get 57. Twelfth place used to get 47 and now gets 45.

The clubs at the top have suffered more than the clubs at the bottom. As you go down the table, the general trend is for the drop in points total to narrow. In fact, the relegation places are performing slightly better than before! This is probably a reflection of their fielding the same quality sides they’ve always fielded against weakening opposition.

The head-to-head results yield a similar insight. The eventual champion has always had a great head-to-head result against the teams who finish in the relegation places (though those wins may now be by a wider margin) but was more evenly matched against the European places. In 2004-2005, when Barcelona and Madrid finished first and second, they were a combined 6-6-4 (win-draw-lose) against the teams that finished in third, fourth, fifth, and sixth places. Those games accounted for about a third of the points each team dropped all season. In 2011-2012, by comparison, Madrid and Barcelona were a combined 12-3-1 against the European teams. A greater share of the points they dropped were 'fluke' slips-ups against lower-table teams!

To those who believe Atletico Madrid or Malaga are capable of a long term title challenge, I say, “Please.” Malaga do have some of the needed quality including startling youth products like Isco, Ignacio Camacho, and Francisco Portillo but recent sales of Diego Buonanotte and Nacho Monreal show that the club is being run pragmatically. They are built to reach the Champions League and generate a consistent financial return, a la Arsenal. (ESPN Soccernet writers have made this argument as well.) And Atlético is a good club on a great run. They play with cohesiveness and fearlessness, but who knows if this will continue, especially when Falcao is inevitably sold on. Valencia, in my opinion, are the one team who would have been capable of a title challenge had they not got carried away with building a new stadium and been forced to sell so many great players.

Is it good to have a Liga de Mierda? I guess this is a question La Liga adminstrators will ask themselves as they consider falling TV audiences and gate receipts, but also consistent Champions League success for Madrid and Barcelona as well as a bigger following for the big two abroad.

The View From Section 118

I apologize to my faithful readers for not updating this blog. I was based in Asia for some time and it was difficult to follow La Liga. Now I am back and on a mission to consume as much FC Barcelona as possible. I got my hands on a season pass to Camp Nou and, in my depraved and deprived state, even go to Barcelona B games at the mini estadi.

My seats are in Section 118, Row 3, right behind the goal that Barcelona attack in the first half. In no particular order, here are my observations:

• Leo Messi spends most of the game walking around and looking bored. Unlike early in his career, when he chased every play and developed chronic muscle problems, these days he concentrates his energy on 8-10 sprints per game. On these runs he tends to be devastating and it's a much better use of his power. Example of a devastating Messi run.
• As good as Messi is, Andres Iniesta might be even better. When Barça face top quality opposition and are under pressure to maintain possession, Iniesta is the most threatening attacker. He's always composed and perfectly balanced. Defenders can't read what he's going to do. "Imagine if the team could field 10 Iniestas as outfield players," I said to my friend. He gasped. "They would be invincible."
• Dani Alves is fading fast. Gone are the days where Alves and Messi on the right side were Barcelona's attacking fulcrum. Alves is increasingly unable to put up a good cross and his shooting is terrible. Before each game he practices shooting from distance and usually gets nowhere near the goal.   And this is with no one between him and the net. Some say that Alves is partying more after splitting from his wife, a la Ronaldinho circa 2007. It wouldn't surprise me if that were true.
• Barcelona's unsung hero is Sergio Busquets. No one recovers more balls in midfield and no one has better anticipation of how a play will develop. At the same time, he has become a better passer and goalscorer. Each year he improves. Example of Busquets improvement as a passer.
• Barcelona are going to need two new keepers. With Valdes insisting he wants to leave at the end of next year and Pinto declining more and more with each game, there will soon be no one left. Barca can purchase two decent keepers and let them battle it out for the starting spot. Do I buy Valdes's reasoning that he simply wants to experience another country while he's in his prime? I'm not sure. I feel like there must be something else.

Thanks for reading and I'll try to post breakdowns of interesting games should they occur.

Why FCB Should Sign Javi Martinez Before the Euros

Everyone accepts that one of Barcelona’s main needs this summer is a central defender. With Carles Puyol battered and ageing (though he should make a full recovery) and Gerard Pique’s attitude questioned at the end of the season, the team was forced into a make-shift defense for key matches and the results were not pretty.

A prime candidate is Javi Martinez – effusively praised in a recent piece from Graham Hunter. Martinez has demonstrated his quality with big-time performances against Spain’s top teams and, of course, Manchester United. A relentless tackler and ball-chaser who can also pass his way out of the back, he is also a perfect fit for Barcelona’s style. The best part is he can play as a midfielder or defender. This would give Barcelona two players – in Martinez and Javier Mascherano – that are flexible enough to shift between and during games. Mascherano is probably better as a midfielder, Martinez as a defender.

The sums being discussed for the 23-year old are already eye-popping. It would be hard to prise him away from Bilbao for anything less than €25mn. But Barcelona would be wise to act soon. Since Puyol is unavailable for the Euro, Martinez will start for Spain. A good run there and his value will almost certainly increase – perhaps to €40mn, which seems like a silly price to pay for a central defender.

The kicker is that if things do not go well for Martinez at the Euro Championships, his value will not drop. His body of work is impossible to refute. Therefore, buyers would do well to close the deal before the tournament. It's a simple game theory argument.

Martinez may ultimately not be available for any price. Don’t rule out a pact between him, Iker Muniain, and Fernando Llorente to stay at Bilbao for another couple years and try to build a winner. For all the players who have grabbed at the first big check someone waved in their face (I know you are reading, Sergio Canales), there are so many who have benefited from waiting. Fernando Torres, Kun Aguero, David Villa, and David Silva all waited a couple years before making their move to an upper-upper-echelon team.

Titles and Relegations!

North Americans always say that the maximum day of sports hedonism is the first round of the re NCAA Basketball Tournament. I stand corrected after today’s finales of the Premier League and La Liga.

Manchester City, on the verge of completing a scandalous meltdown in an impotent performance against 10-man QPR, finally produced two stoppage time goals to wrest the title from Manchester United.  Meanwhile, Arsenal saved more than just its season as it came from behind to guarantee a Champions League place, and with it the ability to retain talisman Robin Van Persie.

In Spain, the drama was at the bottom of the table as Rayo, Granada, Villarreal, and Zaragoza faced possible relegation. The drop is a much different animal in Spain than in England. With Spain unable to support a robust pyramid of professional football like England’s, and parachute payments less generous, relegated teams may never be heard from again. Such is the sentiment towards Villarreal, who will be forced to shed assets again this summer having already sold Santi Cazorla and Joan Capdevila last year. Villarreal perhaps deserved relegation after an insipid season but nonetheless have provided Spain with so many fantastic David vs. Goliath moments during their top-flight run.

Having watched teams and their fans experience the range of emotions today, I would suggest that a relegation escape is even sweeter than a title celebration. Titles are sweet; we all want them. When your team misses out on a title, you’re angry. You wonder if the Meester is the right guy for the job. You lambast players for not being fully committed to the cause. But when a team faces relegation, it sees its life flash before its eyes. People feel desperate. They cry. In the end, losing a title is disappointing but it’s not the end of the world. Relegation is. And escaping it, particularly in the manner that Rayo Vallecano did today after being so close to the flame, must be totally exhilarating.  

To summarize some of the other great stories in both leagues:

-          Minnows Levante produced a brilliant end to a remarkable season that saw them finish in the Europa League places. Unlike so many small teams whose sudden rise was due to a massive cash infusion (Villarreal, TSG Hoffenheim, Málaga), Levante simply played beyond themselves for an entire season (and the latter stages of last season). Even as pundits affectionately documented their early-season rise, most expected a swift descent to mediocrity (or worse), making their strong finish all the more miraculous.

-          Zaragoza completed an inspired turnaround with yet another late victory to save thir season

-          Falcao came up trumps yet again for Atlético Madrid, capping a campaign where the €40mn player has been a smashing success

-          Tottenham paid the price for its late-season complacency and will face more difficulty than ever to hold on to treasures like Luka Modric and Gareth Bale if Chelsea qualify for next season’s Champions League by winning the final this week.

-          Madrid celebrated its title with typical pageantry and pomposity in a ceremony that was unnecessarily similar to an Olympic Games opening ceremony.

-          With its demotion, Villarreal is now in the same league as Villarreal B. forcing the youth team to demote as well. Many in the youth squad are, presumably, adequate to the Segunda Level but not ready for the Primera, though the silver lining is that at least Villarreal should be able to avoid sliding down further, like Gimnastic de Tarragona.

Crisis for the Pep Team?

Still in contention one week ago for the two main jewels in Barcelona’s reach – La Liga and the Champions League – today the prevailing sentiment is that Barcelona’s hegemony over European football has come to an end. Therefore, I would like to hypothesize about why Barcelona has not hit the same highs this season as in the previous 3.

To start, defensive frailties. Most culés believe that Barcelona just need to take their chances in front of goal, but if they had not given up even one of the soft goals against Chelsea, they would have advanced. The reason for the defensive frailties is simply that Puyol, Pique, and Mascherano do not constitute a back line. There is not a left back among them and Mascherano is a midfielder. Pique’s running disagreement with Guardiola, and the probable concussion he suffered last night, complicated things further.

The second structural problem is on the left wing, which seemed to be a focal point for attack but which often lost the ball. In this position, Barcelona’s youth academy has been churning out a flavor of the mouth that sparkles and then fizzles. In 2008, it was Bojan Krkic. He kept the team afloat during the dark final days of the Rijkaard regime but in 2011 was sold like scrap to Milan, having become the fancy sports car that you never take out because you bought another, even fancier one. Next came Pedro. The multi-footed winger was a revelation in 2009 with his big-game goals, seemingly always from different places on the pitch. Fast forward to 2012 and locals groan when Pedro comes on. And this year we had Christian Tello who scored twice in his debut and has earned solid league minutes but has been completely ineffective in the recent big matches.

I have several suggestions for the critical left wing position: 

1)      Thiago Alcantara. He’s probably the best at running at defenders from this position and Barcelona doesn’t need him in the midfield with Cesc, Iniesta, and Xavi fit. For me, Thiago should have been deployed here lsat night and on Saturday.

2)      Loans. La Masia is a factory, and the great thing about a factory is that it churns out players of a similar standard. The bad thing, in a footballing sense, is too little variation – which has enabled defenses to neutralize the young newcomers relatively quickly. It is perhaps no coincidence that two successful cantera alumni, Cesc and Pique, cut their teeth in foreign leagues before coming back to Barcelona.

3)      Outside buys. Sometimes Barcelona has to look outside the cantera for a truly de-stabilizing player, given that its youth setup produces so little variation. Alexis, Villa, and Alves are examples. Unfortunately, there aren’t many good players available who fit this position. The best wingers in Europe who are likely to be available, Jesus Navas and Adam Johnson, play on the right (though Navas occasionally plays on the left). Iker Muniain is a player to watch and does play on the left, but at 19 he’s too unproven.

One final thought: should culés be so concerned about this year’s disappointment given that the critical pieces are still in place? After all, Messi is still Messi, Alexis and Cesc have shined, Xavi and Iniesta are still the best midfielders in the world, and Puyol shows no sign of slowing down. This year’s failure doesn’t mean Barcelona can’t maintain its pace since 2006 of winning the Champions League ever 2-3 years, which is still an achievement unprecedented in the modern game.

I think the real desperation comes from the knowledge that all dynasties inevitably fall. Barcelona experienced some lean years after the 1990’s Dream Team; Madrid went hungry after the initial success of Galácticos I; and Liverpool has not tasted Premier League title success for 20 years. It is premature to call the Pep Team over; but there are signs of cracks in the foundation.

Optimistic about American soccer

To Americans looking for proof that the national team is coming along, last month's friendly win over Italy was a cause for celebration. ESPN suggested the win wouldd be a confidence booster, even though Italy had the bulk of the chances and anywhere between 3 and 5 Yankee players looked totally lost on the pitch. Given the fragility of the win, the fact that it was only a friendly, and the memory of Italian domination in this same fixture in the last Confederations Cup, can we conclude that the US team has improved?

An important factor is the new coach, Jurgen Klinsmann, who certainly brings pedigree and tactical nous to the team. But I would like to focus on the American players' performance with their club teams as a proxy for national team improvement.

Looking around at the different players and leagues, there are encouraging signs. First, the settling of two players who are absolutely critical to the US. Jozy Altidore has finally found his stride at AZ Alkmar - a club that, while perhaps not on the same level as the top-shelf Villarreal side of 2004-2011, is nothing to sniff at either. Ditto Oguchi Onyewu at Sporting CP, after a disastrous stint with AC Milan. Altidore's and Onyewu's talent is undeniable, it's just a question of finding the right situation to extract it. Which is to say that comparisons to Freddy Adu, whose talent was grossly overestimated from the start, are premature for both.

Second, a core of players have really begun to shine in top European leagues. Clint Dempsey has been nothing short of sensational for Fulham, and is quietly reported to be heading to Arsenal in the summer. Landon Donovan again excelled during his annual loan to Everton. Stuart Holden proved his importance at Bolton, albeit through a prolonged absence. And Michael Bradley has had an outstanding season for Chievo that could see top teams come calling. (With Jermaine Jones now in the fold, the central/defensive midfielder position could be said to be the only outfield position with a quality backup.)

It is concerning that only the players named above are truly international-caliber - in addition to, of course, the always-dependable Steve Cherundalo, Carlos Bocanegra, and Tim Howard. The US continues to lack consistent quality throughout the ranks, and will still suffer at the end of games when substitutes can only provide fresh legs, and not fresh impetus. In addition, DaMarcus Beasley's stock has fallen quite drastically and Charlie Davies has yet to recover from his 2010 car accident. Though the maturity of youngsters like Jose Torres and Fabian Johnson might mitigate their loss in form.

All in all, I see the US well-positioned to get something out of its ageing but still-capable core in the next World Cup, depending of course on the draw, but it goes without saying that the core could use some help.

Champions League Semifinal 1st Leg Recap

Congratulations to the home sides who claimed well-deserved victories in the Champions League semifinals, though the door remains plainly open for all 4 teams to stake their claim for the finals in the return leg.

It was interesting to see how Barcelona and Real Madrid reacted to facing this caliber of opposition, since the top-heaviness of La Liga basically means that they are tested only a handful of times per year.

Bayern vs. Real Madrid was a delightful contest, on balance the most even match between two top teams in the competition. With players of the quality of Robben, Ribery, Lahm, and Gomez – and the pedigree of having eliminated a top Manchester United team in 2010 – it was inevitable that Bayern would fluster Madrid. I found it interesting that their attacks often began with Lahm at right back, then crossed the pitch to Ribery on the left flank. Madrid had no answer and was consistently beaten on the left. Gomez also warrants special mention. Perhaps because the Spanish game has shifted away from big target men who don’t like to carry the ball for 40 meters, Madrid was uncertain how to defend Gomez.

In London, I think we saw a similar storyline as in 2009. Barcelona dominated possession (74%) and created more chances (24 to 6) but credit to Chelsea for scoring first. Like in 2009, when Chelsea brought an away goal back to Stamford Bridge and just sat on it until the “Iniestazo,” 2012 Chelsea largely parked the bus after scoring, keen to preserve their 1-0 lead.

Will Barcelona be able to break down the door in the return leg? I think that, on the evidence of the two very clear chances created late in the second half (Puyol’s header and Pedro’s shot off the post), they will find a way through even if Chelsea parks the bus. And Chelsea may not necessarily do so from the outset, as they’ll know that a quick away goal will almost guarantee their passage. So I would expect an open game in the first hour, where if Barcelona scores first they will go on to score a few more, but if Chelsea scores first Barcelona won’t have a prayer. And if no one scores by the hour mark, we’ll see a repeat of last week’s final half hour.

While Chelsea deserves credit for an organized performance and a well-taken goal, in view of Barcelona’s glaring misses (this easily could have been 3-1 to the good into 1-0 against), the British press’s exalting descriptions of a “fearless Chelsea side” seem exaggerated. In the article, Kevin Palmer says that “Di Matteo's team of battle-hardened warriors stood up to the Barcelona machine and refused to buckle under their generally deadly spell.” Palmer’s hyperbole ignores the bevy of near-misses that on other days are goals. The performance was good, but I would not call a 1-0 home win immaculate. Perhaps that is the standard Barcelona have set under Guardiola.

I still think the odds are in favor of a Clásico final, but wouldn’t be totally surprised to see any combination of the 4 teams.

The Beasts of Bilbao

Having paid homage to vanquished Napoli team earlier this week, it seems fitting to do the same for an Athletic Bilbao team that thrashed Manchester United over two legs, advancing to the Europa League quarterfinals after last night's 2-1 victory capped a 5-3 aggregate win.

There is little left to be said about Bilbao since their rebirth has been closely monitored by the leading La Liga pundits. On November 7, Sid Lowe praised Bilbao's spirit in a very even contest with Barcelona, reporting that Pep Guardiola said to Bielsa, "Your men are beasts" after the two teams drew 2-2 at San Mamés. Then on February 27, Phil Ball devoted much of his column to Bilbao's achievements - Copa del Rey final, Europa League, within shouting distance of a Champions League place next year. And in the build-up to the showdown with United, Lowe marveled at Bielsa's meticulous preparation and training ground tactics, suggesting that "the most exciting Bilbao team for decades" might challenge the red devils.

After last night's match, it was Sir Alex Ferguson's turn. "What we have seen...is a team whose workrate is higher than anyone I have seen in Europe," he said. He also admitted that he essentially surrendered at the hour mark when he substituted Ferdinand, Carrick, and Giggs.

My take on Bilbao is that it's been a succession of pieces falling into place. First was the emergence of a generation of supremely talented players, all worthy of a shot at the national team: Javi Martinez, Fernando Llorente, Iker Muniain, Ander Herrera. These guys are all in their mid-20's but have been playing for the first team since they were 17 or 18. In the last 2-3 years, transfer market spending around Europe has calmed so the core of young talent has remained at Bilbao. And Bielsa arrived at just the right moment to shape the team.

European football will be better off if this core stays together at Bilbao and the team qualifies for next year's Champions League.

Incredibly Loud and Impossibly Close (to El Clasico)

(This piece refers to the 2nd leg of the Copa del Rey quarterfinals - ESPN match report)

For visitors to Barcelona who have wondered whether anyone actually goes to all the dingy 1950's-style snack bars with the seedy men and the video poker machines, last night I found the answer. When el clásico is not shown on public television, even the least appetizing spot transforms into a riotious football oasis and the Estrella Damn taps work overtime. In fact, I did some precise calculations (which resulted in my watching the game at a bingo hall, the last available spot, but no matter) and found that Barcelona's bar capacity is exactly tailored to match peak demand of a clásico.

The post victory scene was again surreal, particularly given the late hour (10pm on a Wednesday is a rather unusual slot for this match). I wonder what it was like in Madrid. I'll never forget the metro ride after my hometown sporting apocalypse, the 2004 Philadelphia Eagles Super Bowl loss: an uncomfortable, eerie silence. No one spoke or even so much as looked at one another. Eagles fans knew we were outclassed but the rarity of the opportunity gave the loss a tremendous sting. Madrid fans probably feel a similar mix of disappointment, anger, and confusion.

I might as well comment on the footballing aspect now. My take on the rivalry after 5 meetings already this season remains unchanged: Madrid has talented players who produce moments of great brilliance but they are a far inferior team to Barcelona. They can't win the ball, they can't stop the ball, and they can't keep the ball. Miquel Delaney recently suggested in a brilliant article for Soccernet that Madrid have to change their system. I agree; they need a coherent team philosophy (not just a philosphy du jour as they have employed against Barcelona) and they need to develop players in the cantera to fit into specific slots rather than to be the next world great.

The play was messy on both ends. Higuain threatened early and almost benefited twice from adventurous goalkeeping by Pinto, who resembles David James more and more every day, and this is not a good thing. But Madrid were simply not chasing the game the way you might expect them to coming in 1-2 down. Ozil and Xabi Alonso, the creative fulcrum, were unusually quiet (and this is sloppy but I'm not even sure if Di Maria played). In the second half, Barca simply got lazy, which you might expect of them up 3 goals in a cup tie, and Madrid fought back. To their credit Ronaldo and Benzema played the whole game as if they had something to prove.

I was somewhat surprised that the game finished 2-2 because I thought there would be a final goal that would have in all likelihood decided the tie. After Madrid's second Messi tried his darndest to get on the score sheet and his sights looked sharper with each attempt. But Barcelona were looking overrun at the back, a rarity indeed with the preferred quartet of Puyol, Pique, Alves, and Abidal fully fit. It would have been interesting to continue for another 20 minutes or so.

Before last night, the tabloid chatter was all about Madrid on the ropes. Pepe to sit out the match (gasp). Ramos and Mourinho in dressing room spat (gasp again). Mourinho to get the axe if results against Barça don’t improve (full blown shock). Though it feels like the real decider between these two teams will come in the Champions League, where it's still all to play for, the scenario where Mourinho wins the league and is still fired - like Cappello in 2007 - suddenly feels possible. The neutral fan has to hope for a Champions League clásico final since the big stage seems to bring out the best in this rivalry. A por ello, as they say here.

El Millor Barça de la Historia

Another clásico, another tactical change by Mourinho, and another victory for Barcelona.

This time, Mourinho attempted to confound his sworn rival by crowding the midfield alleys and springing the counterattacks as fast as humanly possible, like a bag of potato chips that reads "Now 20% more crispy!" The counterattacks paid dividends with Ronaldo's opener but most of the time Madrid simply gave the ball away trying to advance a counterattack that was not yet ready. Their passes completed statistic must have been abysmal.

Meanwhile, for Barcelona the center of the pitch was difficult (except when Messi had the ball, because he didn't seem to mind) but the wings were wide open. Iniesta was a terror on the left with serene control and an ability to cut inside or outside to beat his defender. Barca created corner after corner from the flank, leading to the first goal and to an earlier header from Alexis that quite miraculously found its way to the upright.

There was a general sense of joy in the street after the match, cars blaring their horns as they screeched by. Like the first league clásico earlier in the season, this one hurt for Madrid because in Spain you can't wear the belt until you beat the people's champ, and Madrid is not over the hump however gaudy their league resume appears.

After the match, a friend of mine said he was now certain this was the best Barça in history. I know football fans hate to count their chickens before they hatch, I told him, but the signs have been evident for some time.

Never Any Doubt

Last night's 3-1 win for Barcelona in the Bernabeu was probably the most humiliating to date for Jose Mourinho and company because they were psychologically prepared to get over the hump. After previous recent clasicos, Madrid bosses have made somewhat compelling excuses. They declared their roster inadequate (Juande Ramos, 2009) and the team unprepared (Mourinho, after last year's manita). But this time around Mourinho could only manage to grumble that much in football comes down to luck.

And WHEREAS the second goal was luck, and WHEREAS Barcelona's cycle of dominance will eventually end as all dynasties do, Barça are still superior at this moment.

The game was a rewind of every other edition over the past 4 years. Pepe was dirty, Ronaldo was profligate, Xavi and Iniesta were serene, Messi was omnipotent, and Madrid finished the game playing 5 & 5 vs 11. Initially, Madrid disrupted Barcelona's possession game and threatened with intensity. But they flagged and stopped chasing the ball, while Barcelona - Messi in particular - careened across the pitch as if their life depended on recovering possession.

The most surprising aspect of the game was Barcelona's self-assuredness. Whenever Ronaldo or Benzema came barreling down towards goal, Puyol and Pique stood their ground, grimly relishing the moment. "Bring it on." In the midfield, Barcelona dribbled and twirled effortlessly. And the game plan did not waver: Play the through balls, release Alves on the right.

Finally, the additions of Cesc and Alexis give Madrid something new to think about, assuring Barcelona of continued dominance in this rivalry.

El Clasico approaches!

I subjected myself tonight to Barca B against a not very excellent Bate Borisov side in a meaningless Champions League game. Barca B were quite superior, passing Bate to death in between the 18’s though they struggled to create a final product until, 1-0 up in the 60th minute, the goals really started to flow. Some of the play was chaotic – particularly by the fullbacks – but the shape of the lines, the triangles, and the ball chasing are exactly what we’ve come to expect from a Barca side.

Overall, yet another demonstration of the cantera’s muscle. Many of the players are already stepping into the first team with regularity and on the basis of this game, some may wonder why them and not others? Nonetheless, most of the cantera will eventually be offloaded, albeit with a “just in case” buyback clause like Bojan. The only indispensable players in this game were Thiago and Pedro.

Now onto the clásico which looms this weekend. If Barcelona had gone in 3 points down, Madrid would have been trembling. Now that they go in with a de-facto 6 point advantage since they have a game in hand, they’ve already crowned themselves champions. (You could argue that only the Madrid sporting press are jumping to conclusions while the club itself behaves with perfect humility, but the two are so intertwined that this would be pure semantics.)

Now, let’s consider some historical data. Barcelona is undefeated in the league versus Madrid since 2008. Though Madrid won the Copa del Rey last year, Barcelona won their recent meetings in the Super Cup final and Champions League semifinal. Even the “manita” game is not that far in the past. Then, there is the small fact that Barcelona has won 3 of the past 5 Champions Leagues, while Madrid have none. And Messi continues to solidify his legend while Ronaldo looks more like a prima donna every day.

My point is, Madrid (and its lackies from Marca) shouldn’t claim they’ve dethroned Barcelona until they truly duplicate Barca’s accomplishments.

Barcelonanomics

Two recent announcements from FC Barcelona warrant consideration:

1. They lost $105mn in 2009-2010 and have debts of $582mn


2. They recently signed a kit sponsorship deal with the Qatar Foundation worth about $40mn a year over 5-and-a-half years.

How is Barcelona in such a hole? When Sandro Rosell took over as President he basically found out that Laporta had been lying about the books. Always more of a politician than an administrator, Laporta was able to hide the club's sizeable debt behind, it would seem, just his own smugness. It was a rude awakening for Rosell and he promised to reduce debt immediately.

It would seem to defy logic that Barca could lose money after another successful campaign in 2009-2010 but it's not inconceivable. I've tried to rationalize it and could actually reach an even higher range.

1) No t-shirt sponsorship (until next season) (accounts for 40mn)
2) Late or incomplete payments for their TV deal with Mediapro. Apparently the payment dates were not fully ennumerated in the contract (which Laporta negotiated). (accounts for 10mn)
3) Slightly premature exit from Copa del Rey and Champions League (accounts for 10mn)
4) Bad business over Chygrynsky and Ibrahimovic (accounts for 45mn)

The sponsorship is great news for finances, as are this year's excellent results. You would assume the long term debt will decrease after the year, though likely still be around 500mn Euros. I would expect to see a few debt-reduction policies over the next couple years:
1) Continue promoting from within to avoid transfer fees - and do not buy unless truly necessary. For instance, what on Earth would they need to buy this year? (particularly with the B team performing so well)
2) Sell fringe players. Barca essentially have not sold anyone since Ronaldinho and Deco. Even Manchester United sold Ronaldo when their asking price was met. So as much as I hate to say it, if you can get 15-25mn Euros for Bojan you might have to do it. Hleb will certainly be allowed to leave.
3) Ask veterans in decline to take a pay cut? Performances and appearances for guys like Milito and even Puyol will probably decline as they enter their mid-30's, and hopefully their salaries reflect as much.

More thoughts on Barca to come pending further developments...

Hungry For More Revenue

Every couple years, owners grumble that the rise in player salaries and transfer fees outstrips the rise in revenue. This is true of all major sports, not just football, and owners have become adept at envisioning new revenue sources. I wanted to discuss the advancements made in each sport and come up with some best practices. Forgive me for speaking in generalities - I don't have the time or access to the right data to precisely quantify my insights.

Baseball
Though broadcast rights are negotiated collectively, the Yankees found a pot of gold when they started the YES network in 2002. Though YES does not have rights to live Yankee games, it shows other team content as well as minor league games.

American Football
American football not only has a salary cap, but contracts are not guaranteed. If a player is waived (due to injury or poor performances) he essentially becomes a free agent!

European Football
European football has made two significant innovations in this arena: first, most leagues allow teams to sell advertising space on their jerseys. No American sports do this. Second, they tap into foreign markets with lucrative summer tours. The NFL and NBA are just starting to do this with early-season games in Europe, though they seem more like a publicity stunt than a focused moneymaking effort.

Having reviewed innovations in each major sport (and the absence of basketball and hockey is simply because those sports have made zero contribution to this discussion), it's time to give advice. For football teams, the uncharted territory would seem to be in television. FC Barcelona already creates special content on their web and loosely calls it Barca TV. Why not launch a cable channel and earn revenue from subscribers and advertisers?

American sports could learn from soccer, too. Why not sell advertising on jersey space? It gets cluttered if you go to the lengths of South American teams where every inch is filled, but one or two sponsors isn't too tacky. And, more importantly, why not launch summer tours of in-demand markets? Teams like the Yankees, Red Sox, and Dodgers are incredibly popular in Latin America. Having a piece of spring training there would be a major moneymaker for them. The NBA is also gaining popularity as the league globalizes, though not to the extent of MLB.

To be continued...

The Underrateds

First off, congratulations are in order for FC Porto, who claimed the UEFA Cup with a 1-0 victory in the All-Portuguese final against Braga. Porto is one of the more enjoyable European sides to watch due to their vibrant style of play, a continuous march of young stars (Deco, Maniche, Bruno Alves, and Lisandro Lopez, just to name a few) and an underdog mentality.

I reserve special affection for the Porto player Hulk because I feel he is vastly underrated. He's the football version of Lebron James; when he runs at defenders, they get this look in their eye like they want to go home to their mothers. Built like a truck, he should be a plodding central defender, but he's got silk to go with his power.

Writing about Hulk has me thinking: who have been some other underrated players in the world game, and what has been their fate? So, without further adieu...

Andres Iniesta
When Underrated: Into 2006, Iniesta was still considered a squad player. Though he influenced games and scored the occasional goal, he was thought of as a solid but boring alternative to Ronaldinho or Deco.
Since Then: Has confirmed himself as one of the game's greats with match-winning midfield dominance and timely goals for club and country.

Luca Toni
When Underrated: Considered a fluke even while scoring buckets of goals for Palermo from 2003-2005.
Since Then: Finally earned big time moves to Fiorentina and Bayern Munich, proving his class at each stop.

Diego Milito:
When Underrated: Wherever Milito goes, he scores goals. The lack of transfer buzz following stellar seasons at Zaragoza and Genoa surprised me.
Since Then: Like Toni, he chance at the big time came way later than it should have, but he took advantage of it. Many pundits spoke of his dream 2010 season with Inter as a revelation, but it was the same Diego as before.

Mikel Arteta
When Underrated: In the first half of 2008, Arteta was legitimately the best player in the Premier League, performing at a Beckham-like level with free kick goals, dangerous crosses, and midfield marshaling. Yet a Spain call-up never materialized, not did transfer rumors.
Since Then: Injuries have slowed him down, but Arteta will still go down as the best un-capped Spanish player of his generation. Unlucky to 1) play outside of Spain, and 2) mature at the same time as so many other great midfielders.

Yossi Benayoun
When Underrated: At every stop in his career, Benayoun has de-stabilized defenses and turned games on their heads. But he seems to ignored while very similar players like Luka Modric earn (deservedly) endless praise.
Since Then: Was probably the third best attacking player for Liverpool in 2008-2010 - behind Gerrard and Torres - but was never given a permanent first team place or star wages. Moved to Chelsea in 2010 but has only made 6 appearances due to injuries.

Darren Bent
When Underrated: Scored plenty of mop-up goals for Tottenham from 2007-09, but was not seen as providing enough link-up play.
Since Then: Has continued to score the same types of goals for Sunderland and Aston Villa. Pops up in the right place at the right time and rarely misses his chance. When you look at Tottenham this year, wouldn't they have benefitted from this type of player (not to mention his results)?

Damian Manso
When Underrated: Led unfancied Liga de Quito to a Copa Libertadores and thoroughly confused Manchester United in the subsequent Club World Cup.
Since Then: Has still not played in a major European league. This one I understand, though. By the time he emerged for Quito, he was pegged as a journeyman nearing the end of his prime. It's a shame he didn't coordinate seasons like the two in Ecuador earlier in his career. His skills are reminiscent of Messi.

Diego Forlan
When Underrated: Even while leading Villarreal to a Champions League Semifinal and two top-four league finishes (with a healthy dose of Juan Roman Riquelme at his best), Forlan couldn't live down his 'failure' tag from Manchester United.
Since Then: Atletico Madrid's 20 million euro move for him was seen as a risk in 2007 but Forlan now has a major European cup to his name and led Uruguay to a credible semifinal appearance at the 2010 World Cup. Redemption for sure.

To bring the post to a close, why does it often take so long for underrated players to get the transfer that their talents and performances deserve? For one, big teams want to buy young - Arsene Wenger and Alex Ferguson have said it over and over again. Secondly and more importantly, big teams are suspicious of players who don't have a prestigious training pedigree. Players are more likely to have acquired skills in the youth system of a big team than in a lower division or backwoods European league. The reality is that for every Diego Milito and Luca Toni, there are 10 Nery Castillos and Eduardos.

Nonetheless, if I were a big European club I'd be looking seriously at Hulk - despite his inauspicious early career.

Homage to Man United's Golden Generation

Watching the 1999 Champions League Final between Bayern Munich and Manchester United confirmed the transcendent talents of Ryan Giggs and David Beckham, part of Alex Ferguson's golden generation of home-grown players in the 1990's.

Manchester United dominated the entire match despite Bayern scoring first. They controlled the ball effortlessly and would have troubled Oliver Kahn's goal much more if not for the ineptitude of strikers Andy Cole and Teddy Sheringham. The entire offense was essentially Giggs and Beckham. Giggs flashed across the pitch covering huge swaths of ground with the ball at his feet, playing in the strikers time after time only for them to stumble and lose possession.

Meanwhile, the variety offered by a young, fit, and fast Beckham was stunning. He could stop on a dime and play a 70 yard diagonal ball, or he could just as easily orchestrate a quick triangle to get out of trouble. I think part of his effectiveness was that the defense never knew where he was headed: downfield, crossfield, or one-two. He kept his head down but always knew where his teammates would be.

Beckham's energy was incredible in this final. He took all the free kicks and corners and was unfailingly available in midfield. "Beckham is the only name I'm mentioning!" exclaimed the ESPN Deportes announcer at one point. It was so true that United #7 even tried - and almost succeeded - to score directly from a corner kick towards the end of the first half.

I've watched Giggs and Beckham play often in the 2000's, but the opportunity to watch them devastate a top class opponent while in their primes was a privelege. The fact that both are playing today is a testament to their talent and work ethic.

Quick comment on another thing I took away from the 1999 CL final: the sportsmanship. There was no diving, play-acting, or groveling. Players were felled in the penalty box and got right back up. When fouls or offsides infractions were whistled the guilty player immediately gave the ball to the other team. It is sad that in such a short time we have seemingly lost these professional ethics in the European game.

Philadelphia Union Finds A Winning Formula

The MLS put out its annual salary release this weekend and it struck me to notice that the Philadelphia Union has the highest MEDIAN player salary in the league, but is in the bottom half for TOTAL salary. We must examine these facts in light of the Union's very positive start to the season, which has them sitting in 3rd place in their conference as of this writing.

First, the Union chose not to sign a Designated Player. There are two emprical advantages to this choice.

1. You preserve dressing room chemistry because all of the players have roughly the same earning capacity. The fact that some DP's, like Beckham and Henry, earn 50 times as much as other regular players, definitely generates friction even if teams are reluctant to admit it.


2. You don't have to alter your tactics to accomodate a player whose skills may actually be diminished in certain areas.

The next part of the Union's strategy is key. Because they have a high median salary and a low total salary, we can infer there is not much variation. This means they are shelling out top dollar to get high quality players in all positiosn. Look at the Union median relative in particular to all the teams that don't have a designated player. The next highest median is 25k lower. Quite a gap indeed.

Sources:
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