Optimistic about American soccer

To Americans looking for proof that the national team is coming along, last month's friendly win over Italy was a cause for celebration. ESPN suggested the win wouldd be a confidence booster, even though Italy had the bulk of the chances and anywhere between 3 and 5 Yankee players looked totally lost on the pitch. Given the fragility of the win, the fact that it was only a friendly, and the memory of Italian domination in this same fixture in the last Confederations Cup, can we conclude that the US team has improved?

An important factor is the new coach, Jurgen Klinsmann, who certainly brings pedigree and tactical nous to the team. But I would like to focus on the American players' performance with their club teams as a proxy for national team improvement.

Looking around at the different players and leagues, there are encouraging signs. First, the settling of two players who are absolutely critical to the US. Jozy Altidore has finally found his stride at AZ Alkmar - a club that, while perhaps not on the same level as the top-shelf Villarreal side of 2004-2011, is nothing to sniff at either. Ditto Oguchi Onyewu at Sporting CP, after a disastrous stint with AC Milan. Altidore's and Onyewu's talent is undeniable, it's just a question of finding the right situation to extract it. Which is to say that comparisons to Freddy Adu, whose talent was grossly overestimated from the start, are premature for both.

Second, a core of players have really begun to shine in top European leagues. Clint Dempsey has been nothing short of sensational for Fulham, and is quietly reported to be heading to Arsenal in the summer. Landon Donovan again excelled during his annual loan to Everton. Stuart Holden proved his importance at Bolton, albeit through a prolonged absence. And Michael Bradley has had an outstanding season for Chievo that could see top teams come calling. (With Jermaine Jones now in the fold, the central/defensive midfielder position could be said to be the only outfield position with a quality backup.)

It is concerning that only the players named above are truly international-caliber - in addition to, of course, the always-dependable Steve Cherundalo, Carlos Bocanegra, and Tim Howard. The US continues to lack consistent quality throughout the ranks, and will still suffer at the end of games when substitutes can only provide fresh legs, and not fresh impetus. In addition, DaMarcus Beasley's stock has fallen quite drastically and Charlie Davies has yet to recover from his 2010 car accident. Though the maturity of youngsters like Jose Torres and Fabian Johnson might mitigate their loss in form.

All in all, I see the US well-positioned to get something out of its ageing but still-capable core in the next World Cup, depending of course on the draw, but it goes without saying that the core could use some help.

Champions League Semifinal 1st Leg Recap

Congratulations to the home sides who claimed well-deserved victories in the Champions League semifinals, though the door remains plainly open for all 4 teams to stake their claim for the finals in the return leg.

It was interesting to see how Barcelona and Real Madrid reacted to facing this caliber of opposition, since the top-heaviness of La Liga basically means that they are tested only a handful of times per year.

Bayern vs. Real Madrid was a delightful contest, on balance the most even match between two top teams in the competition. With players of the quality of Robben, Ribery, Lahm, and Gomez – and the pedigree of having eliminated a top Manchester United team in 2010 – it was inevitable that Bayern would fluster Madrid. I found it interesting that their attacks often began with Lahm at right back, then crossed the pitch to Ribery on the left flank. Madrid had no answer and was consistently beaten on the left. Gomez also warrants special mention. Perhaps because the Spanish game has shifted away from big target men who don’t like to carry the ball for 40 meters, Madrid was uncertain how to defend Gomez.

In London, I think we saw a similar storyline as in 2009. Barcelona dominated possession (74%) and created more chances (24 to 6) but credit to Chelsea for scoring first. Like in 2009, when Chelsea brought an away goal back to Stamford Bridge and just sat on it until the “Iniestazo,” 2012 Chelsea largely parked the bus after scoring, keen to preserve their 1-0 lead.

Will Barcelona be able to break down the door in the return leg? I think that, on the evidence of the two very clear chances created late in the second half (Puyol’s header and Pedro’s shot off the post), they will find a way through even if Chelsea parks the bus. And Chelsea may not necessarily do so from the outset, as they’ll know that a quick away goal will almost guarantee their passage. So I would expect an open game in the first hour, where if Barcelona scores first they will go on to score a few more, but if Chelsea scores first Barcelona won’t have a prayer. And if no one scores by the hour mark, we’ll see a repeat of last week’s final half hour.

While Chelsea deserves credit for an organized performance and a well-taken goal, in view of Barcelona’s glaring misses (this easily could have been 3-1 to the good into 1-0 against), the British press’s exalting descriptions of a “fearless Chelsea side” seem exaggerated. In the article, Kevin Palmer says that “Di Matteo's team of battle-hardened warriors stood up to the Barcelona machine and refused to buckle under their generally deadly spell.” Palmer’s hyperbole ignores the bevy of near-misses that on other days are goals. The performance was good, but I would not call a 1-0 home win immaculate. Perhaps that is the standard Barcelona have set under Guardiola.

I still think the odds are in favor of a Clásico final, but wouldn’t be totally surprised to see any combination of the 4 teams.

The Beasts of Bilbao

Having paid homage to vanquished Napoli team earlier this week, it seems fitting to do the same for an Athletic Bilbao team that thrashed Manchester United over two legs, advancing to the Europa League quarterfinals after last night's 2-1 victory capped a 5-3 aggregate win.

There is little left to be said about Bilbao since their rebirth has been closely monitored by the leading La Liga pundits. On November 7, Sid Lowe praised Bilbao's spirit in a very even contest with Barcelona, reporting that Pep Guardiola said to Bielsa, "Your men are beasts" after the two teams drew 2-2 at San Mamés. Then on February 27, Phil Ball devoted much of his column to Bilbao's achievements - Copa del Rey final, Europa League, within shouting distance of a Champions League place next year. And in the build-up to the showdown with United, Lowe marveled at Bielsa's meticulous preparation and training ground tactics, suggesting that "the most exciting Bilbao team for decades" might challenge the red devils.

After last night's match, it was Sir Alex Ferguson's turn. "What we have seen...is a team whose workrate is higher than anyone I have seen in Europe," he said. He also admitted that he essentially surrendered at the hour mark when he substituted Ferdinand, Carrick, and Giggs.

My take on Bilbao is that it's been a succession of pieces falling into place. First was the emergence of a generation of supremely talented players, all worthy of a shot at the national team: Javi Martinez, Fernando Llorente, Iker Muniain, Ander Herrera. These guys are all in their mid-20's but have been playing for the first team since they were 17 or 18. In the last 2-3 years, transfer market spending around Europe has calmed so the core of young talent has remained at Bilbao. And Bielsa arrived at just the right moment to shape the team.

European football will be better off if this core stays together at Bilbao and the team qualifies for next year's Champions League.

Incredibly Loud and Impossibly Close (to El Clasico)

(This piece refers to the 2nd leg of the Copa del Rey quarterfinals - ESPN match report)

For visitors to Barcelona who have wondered whether anyone actually goes to all the dingy 1950's-style snack bars with the seedy men and the video poker machines, last night I found the answer. When el clásico is not shown on public television, even the least appetizing spot transforms into a riotious football oasis and the Estrella Damn taps work overtime. In fact, I did some precise calculations (which resulted in my watching the game at a bingo hall, the last available spot, but no matter) and found that Barcelona's bar capacity is exactly tailored to match peak demand of a clásico.

The post victory scene was again surreal, particularly given the late hour (10pm on a Wednesday is a rather unusual slot for this match). I wonder what it was like in Madrid. I'll never forget the metro ride after my hometown sporting apocalypse, the 2004 Philadelphia Eagles Super Bowl loss: an uncomfortable, eerie silence. No one spoke or even so much as looked at one another. Eagles fans knew we were outclassed but the rarity of the opportunity gave the loss a tremendous sting. Madrid fans probably feel a similar mix of disappointment, anger, and confusion.

I might as well comment on the footballing aspect now. My take on the rivalry after 5 meetings already this season remains unchanged: Madrid has talented players who produce moments of great brilliance but they are a far inferior team to Barcelona. They can't win the ball, they can't stop the ball, and they can't keep the ball. Miquel Delaney recently suggested in a brilliant article for Soccernet that Madrid have to change their system. I agree; they need a coherent team philosophy (not just a philosphy du jour as they have employed against Barcelona) and they need to develop players in the cantera to fit into specific slots rather than to be the next world great.

The play was messy on both ends. Higuain threatened early and almost benefited twice from adventurous goalkeeping by Pinto, who resembles David James more and more every day, and this is not a good thing. But Madrid were simply not chasing the game the way you might expect them to coming in 1-2 down. Ozil and Xabi Alonso, the creative fulcrum, were unusually quiet (and this is sloppy but I'm not even sure if Di Maria played). In the second half, Barca simply got lazy, which you might expect of them up 3 goals in a cup tie, and Madrid fought back. To their credit Ronaldo and Benzema played the whole game as if they had something to prove.

I was somewhat surprised that the game finished 2-2 because I thought there would be a final goal that would have in all likelihood decided the tie. After Madrid's second Messi tried his darndest to get on the score sheet and his sights looked sharper with each attempt. But Barcelona were looking overrun at the back, a rarity indeed with the preferred quartet of Puyol, Pique, Alves, and Abidal fully fit. It would have been interesting to continue for another 20 minutes or so.

Before last night, the tabloid chatter was all about Madrid on the ropes. Pepe to sit out the match (gasp). Ramos and Mourinho in dressing room spat (gasp again). Mourinho to get the axe if results against Barça don’t improve (full blown shock). Though it feels like the real decider between these two teams will come in the Champions League, where it's still all to play for, the scenario where Mourinho wins the league and is still fired - like Cappello in 2007 - suddenly feels possible. The neutral fan has to hope for a Champions League clásico final since the big stage seems to bring out the best in this rivalry. A por ello, as they say here.

El Millor Barça de la Historia

Another clásico, another tactical change by Mourinho, and another victory for Barcelona.

This time, Mourinho attempted to confound his sworn rival by crowding the midfield alleys and springing the counterattacks as fast as humanly possible, like a bag of potato chips that reads "Now 20% more crispy!" The counterattacks paid dividends with Ronaldo's opener but most of the time Madrid simply gave the ball away trying to advance a counterattack that was not yet ready. Their passes completed statistic must have been abysmal.

Meanwhile, for Barcelona the center of the pitch was difficult (except when Messi had the ball, because he didn't seem to mind) but the wings were wide open. Iniesta was a terror on the left with serene control and an ability to cut inside or outside to beat his defender. Barca created corner after corner from the flank, leading to the first goal and to an earlier header from Alexis that quite miraculously found its way to the upright.

There was a general sense of joy in the street after the match, cars blaring their horns as they screeched by. Like the first league clásico earlier in the season, this one hurt for Madrid because in Spain you can't wear the belt until you beat the people's champ, and Madrid is not over the hump however gaudy their league resume appears.

After the match, a friend of mine said he was now certain this was the best Barça in history. I know football fans hate to count their chickens before they hatch, I told him, but the signs have been evident for some time.

Never Any Doubt

Last night's 3-1 win for Barcelona in the Bernabeu was probably the most humiliating to date for Jose Mourinho and company because they were psychologically prepared to get over the hump. After previous recent clasicos, Madrid bosses have made somewhat compelling excuses. They declared their roster inadequate (Juande Ramos, 2009) and the team unprepared (Mourinho, after last year's manita). But this time around Mourinho could only manage to grumble that much in football comes down to luck.

And WHEREAS the second goal was luck, and WHEREAS Barcelona's cycle of dominance will eventually end as all dynasties do, Barça are still superior at this moment.

The game was a rewind of every other edition over the past 4 years. Pepe was dirty, Ronaldo was profligate, Xavi and Iniesta were serene, Messi was omnipotent, and Madrid finished the game playing 5 & 5 vs 11. Initially, Madrid disrupted Barcelona's possession game and threatened with intensity. But they flagged and stopped chasing the ball, while Barcelona - Messi in particular - careened across the pitch as if their life depended on recovering possession.

The most surprising aspect of the game was Barcelona's self-assuredness. Whenever Ronaldo or Benzema came barreling down towards goal, Puyol and Pique stood their ground, grimly relishing the moment. "Bring it on." In the midfield, Barcelona dribbled and twirled effortlessly. And the game plan did not waver: Play the through balls, release Alves on the right.

Finally, the additions of Cesc and Alexis give Madrid something new to think about, assuring Barcelona of continued dominance in this rivalry.

El Clasico approaches!

I subjected myself tonight to Barca B against a not very excellent Bate Borisov side in a meaningless Champions League game. Barca B were quite superior, passing Bate to death in between the 18’s though they struggled to create a final product until, 1-0 up in the 60th minute, the goals really started to flow. Some of the play was chaotic – particularly by the fullbacks – but the shape of the lines, the triangles, and the ball chasing are exactly what we’ve come to expect from a Barca side.

Overall, yet another demonstration of the cantera’s muscle. Many of the players are already stepping into the first team with regularity and on the basis of this game, some may wonder why them and not others? Nonetheless, most of the cantera will eventually be offloaded, albeit with a “just in case” buyback clause like Bojan. The only indispensable players in this game were Thiago and Pedro.

Now onto the clásico which looms this weekend. If Barcelona had gone in 3 points down, Madrid would have been trembling. Now that they go in with a de-facto 6 point advantage since they have a game in hand, they’ve already crowned themselves champions. (You could argue that only the Madrid sporting press are jumping to conclusions while the club itself behaves with perfect humility, but the two are so intertwined that this would be pure semantics.)

Now, let’s consider some historical data. Barcelona is undefeated in the league versus Madrid since 2008. Though Madrid won the Copa del Rey last year, Barcelona won their recent meetings in the Super Cup final and Champions League semifinal. Even the “manita” game is not that far in the past. Then, there is the small fact that Barcelona has won 3 of the past 5 Champions Leagues, while Madrid have none. And Messi continues to solidify his legend while Ronaldo looks more like a prima donna every day.

My point is, Madrid (and its lackies from Marca) shouldn’t claim they’ve dethroned Barcelona until they truly duplicate Barca’s accomplishments.